Complicated Claims

For the week ending 7/18/20, first time unemployment claims rose 109,000 to 1,416,000, the first rise in 16 weeks, and claims remain well above the pre-pandemic high of 695,000 in 1982. Yet, continuing claims keep declining and at 16.2 million are down 1.1 million from the week before. So, layoffs are being more than offset by new hires, but can this persist in the face of states re-imposing Sars-Cov-2 restrictions?