Claims Concern

While last week’s first-time unemployment claims were at their highest level since the week ending 10/30/21, the rise in continuing claims is more concerning. Currently, 19 states show a 25% Y-o-Y increase in continuing claims, the highest percentage outside a recession since 1990. The long-term average is nine states, and every time that level is surpassed a recession is either already happening or is about to start.