Box Breakdown

The Y-o-Y percent change in cardboard box demand as measured by the three-month moving average (which is used to reduce monthly volatility) is down 8.3%. This is the largest decline since the Great Recession when demand fell 12%. The last four times Y-o-Y demand has fallen by 4% or more, a recession has occurred three times (dotcom, housing bust, Covid) and the Fed got lucky in 1994/95.