Big Beatings

So far this earnings season, 87% of firms have beat analysts profit expectations, well above the normally inflated 65%. Moreover, the earnings beats have averaged 22.8%, crushing the 3.6% average since 1994. Why? Large firms have taken market share from failed small ones, and GDP is just 0.9% below its pre-pandemic peak while employment is still down by 8.5 million workers, suggesting large efficiency gains are hitting the bottom line.