GRIDLOCK GAINS
11/03/2026 |
When Trump won election on 11/16, the 10-year Treasury quickly rose 19bps because tax cuts were suddenly highly likely. Similarly, when Trump won two years ago the yield on the same bond jumped 16bps. But when the Republicans lost the House in 2018, the 10-year yield dropped 8bps, and in 11/22 when the Democrats lost the House, rates also eased 8bps. All else equal, divided governments tend to lower rates.