GOOD GROWTH

Although 25Q4 GDP was just 1.4%, half of what was expected (and down from an unsustainable 4.4% in 25Q3), the government closure knocked off 1.2 percentage points. If you remove trade, inventories and government, 25Q4 growth was 2.4% and for all of 2025 a solid 2.5%, down from 2.9% in 2024. For 2025, overall GDP was 2.2%, slightly lower than 2024’s 2.4%. All this suggests underlying GDP growth is fine.