DATA DELUGE
12/17/2025 |
Following the recent data dump, it’s clear the labor market continues to cool. The unemployment rate is at 4.6% and is rising almost fast enough to heighten recession concerns. Moreover, manufacturing employment is declining, annual wage growth softens, and November’s 3.5% Y-o-Y rise is the weakest since 6/21. Lastly, October retail spending was flat M-o-M in nominal terms, down after inflation. The economy is deteriorating, how much more is TBD.