RATE REVIEW
09/25/2025 |
The FOMC dot plot (technically the Summary of Economic Projections or SEP) released last Wednesday shows the unemployment rate at 4.5% at the end of this year, and at 4.4% at the end of 2026, barely above the 4.3% that currently prevails. Assuming inflation does not run wild, if the unemployment rate noticeably rises, which does not seem farfetched, that will result in more rate cuts. Watch the unemployment rate.