PAYROLL PROBLEM
09/09/2025 |
The BLS annual preliminary payroll benchmark revisions, based on state government unemployment insurance data, showed a huge 911,000 downward revision to employment growth for the year ending 3/25. This means the economy was slowing before Trump entered office, and that monthly employment growth was not 147,000/month but was 70,000/month! Ideally, it would be good to get better/quicker state data and stop with the surveys. The Fed cuts 25bps next week.