EDGY EMPLOYMENT

August net job growth was dismal at 22,000, with June and July revised down by 21,000 combined. In CY24, job growth averaged 167,000/month, but in the four months since Liberation Day it’s averaged 26,750/month. Of 511,000 private jobs created in 2025, 453,000 were in social assistance and healthcare. A 25-basis-point September cut is all but certain; the key question now is how quickly and deeply the Fed will move thereafter.