RECESSION RETURN

In 1989, the Fed’s last rate hike was in 6/89 and 13 months later a recession began. In 2000, the lag between the Fed’s last hike and the recession was 10 months. In 2006, the lag was 18 months. And in 2018, the lag was 14 months. The median and mean are both about 14 months. This time, the last hike was in 7/23, suggesting a fall recession.