Misguided Markets

Financial markets are worthless in predicting future events. To wit, in mid-January Wall Street was predicting that the Fed would cut the Fed funds rate by a total of 170bps in 2024, almost seven quarter-point cuts, even though the Fed was suggesting three. By 2/1/24, markets were predicting five quarter-point cuts, by early February four cuts, and now 3.5 cuts. This dramatic reversal shows how markets generally overreact.