Forceful Fed

While the 75bps hike in the Fed funds rate was fully anticipated, the surprise was the committee’s plan to raise rates another 125bps at their two remaining 2022 meetings. Moreover, they now finally forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% by 1/1/23, a rise of almost one percentage point from its 7/22 low. That large an increase is almost always accompanied by a recession. The soft landing has surrendered.