Unsettling Uncertainty

Housing, autos, retail sales, and equities are doing well, as is manufacturing. But first-time claims for unemployment remain stubbornly high and permanent job losses are rising as the service sector necessarily shrinks. Congress and the White House can’t agree on the size of another stimulus package, and home-based schooling is starting. There is also an election, maybe a vaccine, and a second Sars-Cov-2 wave. Risk and uncertainty are unusually elevated.