Curtailed Claims

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending 4/13, their lowest level since 9/69, while the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 201,250, the lowest level since 11/69. When unemployment claims hit their cyclical lows in 1/89, 4/00 and 1/06, a recession occurred in 18 months, 11 months and 23 months respectively. Just one more reason why a recession this year is very unlikely.