Pad Prognostications

Pending home sales have declined Y-o-Y for 11 straight months, existing sales peaked in 11/17, existing inventory has been rising Y-o-Y for four straight months, and appreciation has been slowing for six straight months. Starts have been flat since 11/16, new sales have been falling since 11/17, and new inventory has risen from 4.9 months in 11/17 to 7.4. In 2019, starts and sales steady, appreciation slows, and inventories rise.