Increasing Inflation

Despite being on its heels for ages, inflation is strengthening. Y-o-Y economy-wide inflation ticked up to 1.85% in 18Q1, a hairsbreadth away from its four-year peak of 1.96% registered in 17Q1. In addition, it’s meaningfully declined only once since 15Q3. Relatedly, total Y-o-Y employee compensation, which includes wages, salaries, and benefits, grew at 2.7% in 18Q1, its highest rate since 08Q3, and it too has almost steadily risen since 15Q3.