Maturity Matters

10-year Treasury yields are up for many reasons including a subtle shift in Fed policy. The average maturity of the Fed’s huge Treasury portfolio has declined from 7.5 years in 13Q4 to six. This reinvestment strategy raises long rates by reducing long-bond demand. Moreover, maturing Treasuries held by the Fed balloon to $423 billion next year from $3.5 billion in 2015, guaranteeing further declines in average maturity and higher yields.