Reduced Retail

While retail and food service sales have fallen four of the last five months, retail sales are a lousy predictor of anything. During the Great Recession, retail sales turned negative fully eight months after the recession began! Moreover, at $5.2 trillion, Y-o-Y retail sales are 29.4% of GDP, not the 70% that is widely publicized. The larger number includes spending on healthcare and on services both of which are fine.