By 2024, 2.5 million fewer Americans will work due to Obamacare. Because Obamacare healthcare subsidies decline as incomes rise, some workers will deliberately not work to increase their government benefits. The structure of the subsidy is a tax on work. And you get less of whatever you tax. Regrettably, the labor force participation rate is now very low and this will reduce it by another 1.5% percentage points, reducing growth.
Tag Archives: Obamacare
Healthy Demand
Obamacare will reduce demand for employees at firms with slightly less than 50 workers and for hires wanting more than 30 hours/week of work. It’ll also reduce the supply of labor. Now, many employees work for health insurance. Once insurance becomes easily available and heavily subsidized for the poor, a major reason to work will be removed. Moreover, the better the subsidized exchange-provided plans are, the less appealing work becomes.
Terrible Tactics
The GOP threat to close the government on 10/1 if the 2014 budget contains any funding for Obamacare is laughable. Obama will veto any bill that defunds his signature achievement and a veto override is impossible as it requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Moreover, dare I remind anyone, the most recent attempt to close the government on 1/1/13 resulted in the GOP voting for a humiliating tax increase.
Workless Policy
With the Obamacare requirement that most employers offer affordable health insurance to their employees soon to become law, expect total employment to rise and hours worked/worker to fall. This is because employers will force their employees, where possible, to work less than 30 hours/week. But employers will have to compensate by hiring more workers to make up for the reduced hours/worker, unless firms have already done this. Forecasting is hard!
Hold the Healthcare
24 million workers work 30 hours/week or less. For the purpose of Obamacare, these are part-timers and need not receive employer provide healthcare. Another 10 million workers work between 30 and 35 hours/week. If employers can hold those 10 million workers down to less than 30 hours a week, fully 25% of the labor force won’t qualify for employer provided health insurance. How does working fewer hours help the poor?
The Supremes
Opponents of healthcare reform (PPACA) contend it’s unconstitutional, as it forces us to buy health insurance or pay a fine. But is it? Suppose the IRS raised our taxes by the penalty amount, then gave everyone with insurance a deduction equal to the penalty? This would be functionally equivalent to the PPACA tax provisions. It’s also how the IRS treats the charitable and mortgage interest deductions. The Supreme Court will strike down the Mandate.