By 12/31/13 the Greek economy will be 30% smaller than it was in 2008! And, it may not be done shrinking. Thus, the most recent Greek bailout is simply the latest “fix” with more to come! Worse, this tragedy becomes more costly the longer the wealthy nations ignore reality and pretend Greece can “grow out” of its problems out of fear of upsetting their electorate by telling them the truth.
Tag Archives: Greek Bailout
Greek Gamble
The latest Greek bailout is shaping up as a race between a fast shrinking economy and better access to credit and lower interest payments that hopefully encourage private sector growth. The problem is absent rapid growth in exports and tourism, Greece will have a hard time paying its bills as the forced internal devaluation–lower wages–makes its economy more competitive but shrinks it thus raising its debt to GDP ratio.
Greeks Bearing Gifts
The chances of a Greek default in the next 5 years is 98%. It now costs $5.8 million upfront and $100,000/year to insure $10 million of Greek debt for 5 years. This is because the austerity plan is failing, the Germans refuse to give the Greeks more money, Greece’s budget gap widened 22 percent in the first 8 months of ’11 and their economy is shrinking. And, oh yeah, interest on 2-year Greek notes is almost 70%. Default is Greece’s best hope!