Greeks Bearing Gifts

The chances of a Greek default in the next 5 years is 98%. It now costs $5.8 million upfront and $100,000/year to insure $10 million of Greek debt for 5 years. This is because the austerity plan is failing, the Germans refuse to give the Greeks more money, Greece’s budget gap widened 22 percent in the first 8 months of ’11 and their economy is shrinking. And, oh yeah, interest on 2-year Greek notes is almost 70%. Default is Greece’s best hope!

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