Nov
01

GDP Guesstimate

One day before being announced, the Blue-Chip consensus of top business economists predicted 21Q3 GDP growth of 4%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model anticipated 0%. To prove all wrong, 21Q3 GDP was 2%! The future, even when a day away, is unknowable. GDP fell from 6.7% in 21Q2 due to the rise of the Delta variant, worsening supply-chain problems, and reduced government spending. 21Q4 should be materially better.

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