Tag Archives: US Trade Deficit

Diminishing Deficit

The US trade deficit was $38.8 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July and has been hovering around $40 billion/month since early 2010. Before the Great Recession, it was about $60 billion/month. The difference, oil imports are down about $20 billion/month due to rising domestic production. Our deficit with China was $29.9 billion last month. Excluding China and oil, we have a surplus of about $10 billion/month with everyone else.

Made in China

The US trade deficit widened by $2 billion from September to October and now stands at $42.2 billion. While Sandy is partly to blame for some of the 3.2% decline in exports, so is a slowing global economy. This means exports won’t boost GDP for a while. The October trade deficit with China hit a record $29.5 billion. Despite this, the US will never cite China as a currency manipulator.

Gimmie Growth

June’s trade deficit swelled 18.8% to $49.9 billion, the highest since 10/08 and much worse than economists (what do they know) predicted. If annualized, the June deficit would be almost $600 billion. That data along with recent inventory data suggest Q2 growth will very sluggish; 1.5%-1.7%. While certainly not recession territory, we have an economy that is vulnerable to shocks and is weaker than we want to believe.