On 4/30/14 Q1 GDP (which ended a month earlier) was estimated at 0.1%. On 5/29/14 it was revised down to -1.0%, and on 6/25/14, three months after the end of Q1, it was knocked down to -2.9%! The difference between the first and the third estimates of Q1 GDP is three percentage points, or $125 billion; the annual GDP of New Zealand! The takeaway, trust economic forecasts at your peril!
Tag Archives: Q1 GDP
Lackluster Predictions
Sales for US durable goods fell 0.9% in Feb. Economists were looking for a rise of 1.5%. Oh well! Orders have declined in 4 of the past 5 months. Core capital goods (excludes volatile defense and transportation) declined 1.3% on the heels of a 6% decline in Jan. I am going out on a limb and predicting Q1 GDP to come in at a lackluster 3.0%.