Posts Tagged ‘politics and economics’
Delightful Divergence
While the Bank of Japan is engaging in expansionary monetary policy and the ECB probably will in early 2015, the Bank of England will likely raise rates by 4/15 with the Fed following soon thereafter. While this monetary policy divergence reduces global growth, it keeps commodity inflation down and reduces the chances of a massive…
Read MoreNeutral Numbers
On one hand, small business optimism is at a post-recession high, the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP is at its lowest level since 2008, and job openings are back at pre-recession levels. On the other hand, retail sales disappointed for a second straight month, inventories look a bit high, and first time mortgage applications…
Read MoreUnusual Unemployment
Last week’s first time claims for unemployment insurance came in at 289,000, the second lowest reading since May 2000. Importantly, the claims numbers from three weeks ago, which came in at 279,000, were the absolute lowest since May 2000 (yes, 14 years ago). The less volatile 4-week moving average now stands at 293,500, the lowest…
Read MoreProgressive Percentiles
The poorest fifth of all households earn 3% of aggregate income and pay 0.4% of all federal taxes. The next quintile earns 7.6% of income and pays 3.8% of taxes. The middle quintile earns 12% and pays 9.1%, the 4th quintile earns 18.2% and pays 17.6% while the top fifth earns 59.2% and pays 68.8%.…
Read MoreTerrific Tracks
The Friday File: The seventh busiest and fifth longest subway system in the world is the New York City subway which had ridership of 1.7 billion in 2012 and has 368km of track. The busiest is the Tokyo system which served 3.1 billion riders in 2012 and has 310km of track. The longest is Seoul’s…
Read MoreDecent Data
Today’s Q2 GDP estimate came in at 4%, better than expected. Moreover, the dismal -2.9% estimate of Q1 GDP was revised up to -2.1%. As for the underlying components, consumer spending increased at a 2.5% annualized rate, which is solid, and housing grew, which beats the shrinking it’s been doing for the last six months!…
Read MoreMonetary Matters
While the Fed has been right to keep rates low because inflation has been totally benign for years, that doesn’t mean they will start raising rates at the right moment. They would much prefer to raise rates late and be forced to tamp down some inflation than to raise rates too early and weaken the…
Read MoreBuenos Bonds
Should Argentina not pay its bondholders by Friday, it will default for the second time in 13 years. Argentina is paying investors who swapped their previously-defaulted bonds for new, less valuable bonds, but isn’t paying investors who refused the swap. A US judge is now prohibiting Argentina from paying anyone until the holdouts are satisfied.…
Read MorePot Percentage
The Friday File: Since recreational marijuana first became legal in Colorado on 1/1/14, an estimated 485,000 Coloradans, or 9% of the state’s population of 5.4 million, consume marijuana at least once a month. Of those 485,000 consumers, 30% or 145,500 persons, smoke pot or consume edibles more than 20 times a month. That population, just…
Read MoreHouse Holdings
Prior to the recession, the average homeowner’s equity percentage in their home was 60%. That percentage is now 53.64% and has been rising steadily since bottoming out at 36.6% in Q1/09. This suggests we are quite close to fully recovering. The catch: house prices are still 15% lower than they were before the recession. Therefore…
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