Given signs of inflation QE ends in June taking wind out of the S&P. The fiscal year for S&L govts starts in July and big tax hikes and spending cuts are due. State restraint is already visible in reduced employment. In Oct federal spending cuts commence as fiscal ’12 begins. In Q1 ‘12, we will see headwind as the payroll tax cuts and bonus depreciation allowances that expire at the end of ‘11 won’t be extended.
Tag Archives: payroll
Household Employment
If you were to pick just 1 item out of yesterday’s jobs report that accurately depicts the labor market, given the inconsistent messages, it would be the Household employment # on a payroll and population adjusted basis. It came in at +153k in Jan; in line with the avg of the past 12 months. For bulls it confirms a labor market recovery; for bears it shows there’s no sign of acceleration in employment growth.
GOOD NEWS jobless
Initial jobless claims for the week of 1/15 unexpectedly improved dipping to 404k from the downwardly revised 441k the week prior. This should translate into a better payrolls report when the data are released on 2/4. Also, the architectural billings index jumped 3.2 points in December to a 3-year high of 54.2. This index leads the growth rate of non-residential construction by about a year.
Taxes and Rates
Ever wonder how much federal tax you pay? The answer (with some assumptions) depends on 4 tax rates. 1st you pay the combined income and payroll tax on earnings. 2nd you pay the corporate tax while you invest your money. 3rd you pay dividend and capital gains tax as you receive the income. 4th you pay the estate tax when you leave what has accumulated to your heirs. Clearly taxes and rates matter