In a sign domestic oil prices are expected to fall in the future, the price of futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate oil are cheaper the further into the future the settlement date. Futures prices are usually higher than current prices because futures prices must include storage, carrying costs and more. Reasons for this inversion include more US production, fewer anticipated pipeline bottlenecks, reduced geopolitical risk and lower seasonal demand.
Tag Archives: Oil Prices
Pump it Up
Despite a US Energy Information Administration report that global oil reserves are 10% higher than in 2011, due to the discovery of 345 billion barrels of shale oil, don’t expect lower pump prices. This is because unlike Alaskan oil, shale oil comes from hundreds of small wells, with high production costs. If prices fall, pumping will cease. Thus, shale oil will only act to cap or dampen price rises.
UPS Earnings: Up but Down
UPS released its earnings last week. Volume fell here but grew overseas. Pricing power in the US was good and revenue surged despite weak volume because big investments in technology resulted in worker hours falling 2%. UPS mgt also had concerns about oil. In short: great $$$$, mediocre US outlook, a better situation in Asia, good times for technology firms, bad times for workers and fears about oil.