During Q1 2014, GDP declined at an annualized rate of 2.9% while employment growth increased at a rate of 1.5% meaning more workers produced less stuff and labor productivity collapsed. The last time GDP fell this much and employment increased was Q1 1974, after OPEC quadrupled the price of oil following the Arab oil embargo. Absent a shock like that, I expect both productivity and GDP to be upwardly revised.
With GDP growth at 2% for the past several years and expected through Q1/14, the recent employment rise from about 150,000 net new jobs/month in summer to about 200,000/month since seems odd. It’s because firms are finally hiring because labor productivity growth has been close to zero for the past 15 months, down from 3.3% in 2009 and 2010. Thus, firms must hire more people to make more stuff.
Jobs, where are they? The Labor Dept. employment tally came in at 54K well off the 232K in April and 194K in March. While our economy may be entering another “soft patch” the thing is you don’t get 2 of them in the first 2 years of a normal economic recovery! The silver lining, labor productivity growth was lousy; just 1.8% in Q1, so more output will require more workers; someday.
