Cottage Cheese Boycott

Greetings from Jerusalem! Amazingly, the big issue here is the high cost of cottage cheese! An 8 oz tub costs $2, twice the price it is in Europe. Consumers are outraged and are boycotting all cottage cheese. The high price is the result of a panoply of monopolies and cartels that dominate a wide range…

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Car Rental Rationality?

Airlines and hotels charge cancellation fees but not car rental firm. Why? I think it’s because car renters usually arrive by plane and then go to a hotel. The car rental agency can thus free ride on the cancellation policies of the others. That is, to cancel the car you have to cancel your trip…

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New House Sales Slide

You are in a whole new universe when existing and new housing sales slide 3.8% and 2.1% in a month and it’s treated as good news! The peak in new sales was 1.39 million in 7/05. The Median price of a new home fell to 222.6K, it’s just 166.5K for existing homes; a huge price…

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Unfunded Liabilities

Advanced economies with aging populations have made lavish spending promises that are unafforadable absent huge tax increases. In Canada the “unfunded” amount is 7 times GDP. In Korea it is 6.8, in Spain it is 6.5, here in the USA it’s 5, in Australia it’s 4.8, in the UK 3.3, in Germany 2.8. France 2.7,…

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Moral Hazard

Ideally Greece would leave the Euro, default on its debts, and get on with its economic existence. But, leaving the Euro would be a disaster for the Euro zone. So the Europeans won’t let it happen. Neither will the Chinese as they do not want the US Dollar to be the only reserve currency. Since…

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Weak in Review

Weak in Review: The latest jobless claims numbers are still troublesome. The key takeaway is that first time claims have now exceeded 400k for 10 weeks in a row and the four-week moving average is stuck at 425k. Moreover, the Philly Fed index at -7.7 along with the similar -7.8 print on the NY Empire,…

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Recession Reduces Romance

US births fell for a 3rd straight year. Births peaked at 4.3 million in ’07 but by ’10 births were just 4 million. In ’08 and ’09 the only increase in births was for women over 40. The decline is tied to the economy. Women who are unemployed or who have other financial strains are…

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A Rise in Earnings?

In the early ’90s Pfizer patented sildenafil to treat various heart-related conditions. That patent expires in ’12. During clinical trials men taking sildenafil experienced spontaneous erections. This led Pfizer to develop the same drug (Viagra) for ED. Pfizer then applied for a second patent on sildenafil as an ED drug. That patent ends in ’19.…

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Peak GDP Growth; Dismal!

On a 4-quarter trailing basis real GDP growth peaked at 3.2% in Q3 of last year, declined to 2.8% in Q4 and now stands at just 2.3% If that Q3 peak of 3.2% holds, it will be the be the lowest post-recession GDP peak ever recorded in the post WWII era. For purposes of comparison,…

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Debt Ceiling Decisions

The Congress will raise the debt ceiling! There have been 6 Biden Summit meetings (hosted by VP Biden and attended by 3 key players from each party) in the past 6 weeks but 3 are scheduled for this week, the heated rhetoric is gone and this weekend Obama and Speaker Boehner will play golf and…

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