Octane Economics

Because households irrationally assign fixed amounts to budget categories such as clothes or food, price changes within a category can result in bizarre behavior; case in point, gasoline. Seems a rise in gas prices (which reduces purchasing power) causes households to shift from high-grade gasoline to low-grade gasoline 20 times more than when purchasing power…

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Invisible Inflation

While the economy is improving, inflation is MIA. Wages adjusted for inflation were up just 0.3% in 2012 after falling 1% in 2011. Meanwhile, the CPI and core CPI (excluding food and energy) were up 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in 2012. Similarly, the producer price index (PPI) and core PPI were up just 1.3% and…

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Cheap Charity

By raising marginal tax rates for the upper 1% of the population from 35% to 39.6%, passage of the fiscal cliff avoidance bill will encourage increased charitable giving by the rich because it’s cheaper! To be precise, it’s 7.8% cheaper even after the phase-out of Schedule A deductions is considered. This unintended consequence will result…

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Budget Deficit Perspective

In 2009, the budget deficit hit a post WWII record of 10.1% of GDP as receipts fell to a 60-year low of 15.1% of GDP, while outlays hit a 60-year high of 25.2%. Only between 1942 and 1945 has the deficit ever been worse, topping out at 30.3% in 1943. The deficit is now 8.5%…

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Befuddling BMI

The Friday File: Researchers find that being overweight (BMI between 25 and 30) surprisingly lowers risk of death by 6%, and having a BMI between 30 and 35, by 5%! While no one knows why, health experts are spinning like bad economists. Maybe BMI is flawed or maybe by setting the normal category between 18.5…

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Death of a Giant

James McGill Buchannan, winner of the 1986 Nobel Prize in economics, died earlier this week. He was best known for promoting public choice theory, an approach which treats politicians and bureaucrats as utility-maximizing economic agents motivated by self-interest. Rather than making more money, bureaucrats and politicians aim to win reelection, gain more power, more budget…

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Money in my Pocket

Total debt service payments as percentage of disposable income have fallen from a peak of 14.1% in 7/07 to just 10.6% today, a level last seen in 10/93; a decline of 25%. This is due to a combination of low interest rates, rising disposable income, and lots of mortgage defaults, which have reduced household debt…

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Declining Deductions

With passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (the fiscal cliff bill), the residential real estate industry dodged a bullet. While Schedule A deductions are phased out for couples with incomes above $300,000, the phaseout is mild. A couple with $500,000 of income would be $200,000 over the $300,000 limit. Thus, their deductions…

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Thou Shalt Not Steal

Between 1992 and 2011, violent crime fell by 38%, and the violent crime rate, that is crimes per 100,000 persons, fell by 50%. Similarly, property crimes fell by 27.5% and the property crime rate fell by almost 41%. Motor vehicle theft led the way falling by 55%, with the rate declining by an eye-popping 64%!…

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Thank You!

Thank You! I want to take this opportunity to thank you all very much for your interest in my daily blog. I wish you and yours all the best for 2013. May it be a year full of employment, good decisions, health, joy, love, laughter and prosperity — in risk adjusted terms, of course!

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