Posts Tagged ‘GDP’
Decent Data
Today’s Q2 GDP estimate came in at 4%, better than expected. Moreover, the dismal -2.9% estimate of Q1 GDP was revised up to -2.1%. As for the underlying components, consumer spending increased at a 2.5% annualized rate, which is solid, and housing grew, which beats the shrinking it’s been doing for the last six months!…
Read MorePathetic Predictions
On 4/30/14 Q1 GDP (which ended a month earlier) was estimated at 0.1%. On 5/29/14 it was revised down to -1.0%, and on 6/25/14, three months after the end of Q1, it was knocked down to -2.9%! The difference between the first and the third estimates of Q1 GDP is three percentage points, or $125…
Read MoreIncreasing Interest
While expecting Q1 GDP growth to be revised down to an annualized rate of -2% from the current -1%, expect the Fed to keep tapering on autopilot and reduce it by another $10 billion to $35 billion/month at the conclusion of the June 17-18 meeting. Markets will now be laser-focused on how and more importantly…
Read MoreBearable Budget Battle
The budget deficit is falling rapidly and is now projected to be $642 billion, or 4% of GDP, in FY 2013. It was projected to be $200 billion higher just three months ago. This improvement will delay the next debt ceiling brawl from June to November. And with election season already starting by then, expect…
Read MoreMore Mediocrity
The good: the index of leading economic indicators rose, as did retail sales, consumer sentiment, and housing permits. The bad: Europe is now officially in recession, first-time unemployment claims rose, manufacturing activity declined, inflation as measured four different ways is non-existent, housing starts weakened, and industrial production and capacity utilization both fell more than expected.…
Read MoreGassing Up
Retail sales jumped 0.1% in April and while not great, it beats the 0.5% decline in March! Moreover, it shows that consumers are spending despite the sequester and the payroll tax increase. And a key reason was the huge 3.5% decline in gasoline prices, the largest monthly drop in a decade. If sustained for a…
Read MoreGovernment Diversion
Federal government spending has steadily increased from 14% of GDP in 1950 to about 25% today. Because of this, legislators and bureaucrats are increasingly lobbied in an effort to have them bestow government largess on one group or another. Unfortunately, this is a zero-sum game. Were government spending to decline, so would the importance of…
Read MoreGDP Behaving Badly
Despite GDP contracting at an annual rate of 0.1% in Q4 2012, the worst quarter since the end of the recession in 6/09, another recession isn’t in the cards. That’s because the data also showed relatively strong spending by consumers and businesses. Military spending posted its sharpest quarterly drop in 40 years, 22.2% (a one-time…
Read MoreDown GDP, Down!
With personal income growth flat, savings rates up and real disposable income down 0.2% in October, it’s not surprising personal consumption grew just 1.4%! The weak pace of income growth will limit Q4 GDP growth to less than 1.5% and GDP growth will be yet weaker in Q1 ’13 (1.2%) as disposable incomes will fall…
Read MoreDoctor Doctor, Gimmie the News
In the mid-2000s, American made roughly 160 million doctor visits/year. Since ’09, that number has fallen to 140 million, and has stayed there. Thus, real US per-capita spending on healthcare has been growing at just 2.1%/year, down from 4.3%/year earlier in the decade. Why? It’s a combination of a lousy economy, higher out-of-pocket expenses, a…
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