Posts Tagged ‘Elliot’s Brief Blog’
Bulls and Bears Battle
Week of 5/9/11 data recap: Retail sales were weak beneath the surface with 60% of the strength in April sales coming from higher prices for gasoline and food; looking closely at the Producer Price Index there is still minimal evidence of any pass-through inflation from the crude stage to the final product which means core…
Read MoreExpensive “Lady Blunt”
The “Lady Blunt” a 1721 violin built by Stradivari sold at auction for 200K in ‘71. Nippon Music paid $10 million for it in ’08 and is auctioning it off on 6/20 with proceeds benefiting victims of Japan’s quake and tsunami. The instrument is so valued because so few have played it. The original varnish…
Read MoreHigh Finance Onions?
In ‘58 Cong banned the trading of futures contracts on onions! Growers lobbied a MI Congressman named Gerald Ford to push the law hoping it would reduce volatility. Since then onion price volatility has made swings in oil and corn look tame. On April 1 a lb. of onions was 7.5 cents down from 30…
Read MoreStudent Defaults Rising
The default rate for all federal student loans rose to 13.8% from 11.8% for students beginning repayment in FY ‘08 compared with ‘07 according to the DOE. For public schools, the default rate is 10.8% while it is only 7.6% for private schools. For-profit colleges have the highest default rate at a whopping 25%! Can…
Read MoreReturn to Drachma
Greece must leave the Euro! Argentina (Arg) shows why. From ’98 through ’01 Arg was in a bad recession; the Peso was pegged to the USD. Arg borrowed from the IMF cut spending and the economy tanked. Then Arg defaulted on its foreign debt. The economy shank a bit but has been great since. In…
Read MoreGreek Tragedy
The Greek 10-yr gov’t bond yield is 14.7%, 11.5% above comparable German bonds. The 2-yr Greek note is trading at 22.2%, 20.45 % above the German 2-yr note. The cost of insuring Greek sovereign bonds jumped to 1,422 basis points based on the Bloomberg London 5-yr credit default swap. These swap prices signal more than…
Read MoreExcellent Employment!
Hallelujah! The economy gained 244K jobs in April! Payroll data for Feb and March were also revised up by a combined 46K! Hiring in the private sector posted the largest increase in 5 years and was broad based! Ignore the rise in the unemployment rate to 9%. The bad news; gov’t employment fell 24K, avg…
Read MoreArt Brushes Up
Like the Dow Jones, the art market is also hitting new postcrash highs. Sales peaked in ’07 when Christie’s and Sotheby’s sold $11.3 billion of art. That total fell to $4.8 in ’09 but jumped to $9.8 in ’10. And last May a Picasso sold for $106.5 million the most ever paid at auction for…
Read MoreCostly Crown Celebration
Economists, those killjoys, are busy adding up the cost of the UK royal wedding, and all associated matrimonial festivities. At one end an economist thinks it will knock 1.5% or $15 billion off UK GDP as that equals one day’s work. Another says it will cost just 0.2% or $2 billion or 1/5th of a…
Read MoreUPS Earnings: Up but Down
UPS released its earnings last week. Volume fell here but grew overseas. Pricing power in the US was good and revenue surged despite weak volume because big investments in technology resulted in worker hours falling 2%. UPS mgt also had concerns about oil. In short: great $$$$, mediocre US outlook, a better situation in Asia,…
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