With the July consumer sentiment number rising to 85.1, it’s now at its highest level since 7/07, and way up from its all time low of 55.3 set in 11/08. Add to that a sharp rise in non-defense durable goods orders, a rise in home prices, and a tiny rise in first-time unemployment claims, entirely attributable to scheduled auto plant retooling/shutdowns and end-of-school claims, and Q3 is looking up.
Tag Archives: eisenberg economist
Fed Funds
While the Fed’s balance sheet has mushroomed from $850 billion in 2008 to $3.3 trillion today as a result of three rounds of quantitative easing, the last of which is not yet done, these holdings bring in considerable amounts of interest. Because the Fed must return all residual earnings to the Treasury, in 2012 the Fed paid Uncle Sam $89 billion! In 2011, it was $77 billion. Long Live QE!
Interesting Jobs
With 195,000 new jobs in June, the average monthly gain in the first half of 2013 is 202,000 – way up from the 130,000/month pace when QE3 began. Moreover, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, because 177,000 people joined the labor force! Unfortunately, 112,000 of the new jobs were either in leisure and hospitality or retail trade, both low-paying sectors. Three more months like this and tapering probably starts in September.
Worth Less Used Cars
The Friday File: Wonder why driving a new car off the lot reduces its value by 25% or more? One reason has to do with the retail showroom price versus the resale/used price. The other has to do with car quality. Why return a new car unless it’s a lemon or suffered non-visible damage? Thus, even if the car is perfect, its price incorporates the probability that it’s damaged goods.
Freedom is Expensive
The Revolutionary War, fought between 1775 and 1783 cost $101 million then or about $2.4 billion today. That number includes only the cost of military operations. If you include interest on borrowed money and veterans’ benefits, costs are higher. The number of Revolutionary War dead totaled 4,435 out of a population of 2.75 million. Proportionally, that’s equal to 525,000 dead today. Be very appreciative and celebrate the 4th.
Morsi or Less
By giving the Muslim Brotherhood Government of President Muhammad Morsi a 48 hour deadline to compromise with the opposition or else face an Army-imposed solution, the Army is forcing Morsi out. As a result, the opposition now has no incentive to compromise. The only choices remaining for the Morsi government: resign, set a date for new elections or give up substantial power. Note: the Brotherhood will not go quietly.
Baby Bounce
The Friday File: Retailers expect Britons to spend $100 million toasting the arrival the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s first child in July. Another $40 million will be spent on party food, $207 million on commemorative memorabilia and books and $38 million on toys. All totaled, almost $400 million not including the “Kate Effect” which boosts sales of everything she buys. BTW, I’m 2,567,321,879th in line to the throne.
Vicious Volatility
On days like today when stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities and emerging markets all fall, portfolio diversification, doesn’t help. Remember that. Separately, financial markets have wiped out all of May and June’s gains not because QE3 will end, but because participants are unconvinced that the economy can withstand higher interest rates without slowing. And that will hurt household spending and ultimately corporate earnings. I’m diversifying into booze.
Hot Houses
With house prices soaring by double digits and investors buying large numbers of homes, there is suddenly talk of another housing bubble. I doubt it. Affordability is still remarkably high, credit is being extended to only the best borrowers, and housing inventory, which is exceptionally low, has probably hit bottom and will now rise and in the process slow price increases. The problem will be a lack of developable lots.
Making Bank
The key problem holding Europe back isn’t high interest rates, it’s the weak condition of their banks and thus their unwillingness to lend. Exacerbating the problem is that in Europe banks are the basically the only source for money and as a result, they hold 80% of financial assets. Here, by contrast, banks hold just 30% of financial assets because growing firms tap pension plans and insurance companies for financing.