De-inversion Drama

Ten days ago the 2-year 10-year yield curve was deeply inverted. Today the inversion is less than half what it was. The long end has fallen by half a point while the short end has fallen by over a point. Should the yield curve de-invert, watch out. Historically, from the day the yield curve is no longer inverted, the average time to recession is four months, the median two months.

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