Infinitesimal Inflation

Headline Y-o-Y Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (PCE) is running at a benign 1.4%, and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, is up a weak 1.5% Y-o-Y, and economy wide GDP inflation is just 1.2%. Relatedly, employment cost inflation has been steadily falling over the past several quarters, suggesting that Covid-19 is unsurprisingly lowering employer labor costs. Lastly, consumer expectations of inflation through 2025 are flat to declining.

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