Impeachment Incentives

Given that an impeachment inquiry is just around the corner, and the chances of President Trump being impeached by year end have suddenly doubled to 42%, China now has less incentive to make a trade deal than before. However, the president has a stronger incentive to clinch a deal, even if it’s weaker, to show he’s a successful dealmaker. Impeachment proceedings against Clinton and Nixon impacted markets, but not significantly.

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