The direct effects of the China-US trade spat on the US are small. It’s secondary effects, like weakening global growth, declining equities, Chinese retaliation, and falling US consumer and business confidence leading to reduced capital investment that’ll hurt. Moreover, the newest potentially tariffed Chinese imports are consumer goods, and US consumer spending drives growth. Collectively, higher priced consumer goods and deteriorating confidence will hurt, but won’t cause a near-term recession.