May
08

Lousy Lumber

In 5/18, lumber futures hit $640/1,000 board feet. By 10/18, they were half and have largely remained there; mills are closing. New home construction has reduced GDP for five straight quarters and is 3.76% of GDP. At the peak of the boom, it was 6.67%. Moreover, YTD starts are down 9.7%, permits are down 5.4%, existing sales have fallen Y-o-Y for 13 straight months, and renovation activity growth is slowing.

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