China Cooling

  While China’s exports fell a whopping 21% in 2/19, averaging out January and February the decline is just 4.6%; nearly identical to the decline of 4.4% in 12/17. Averaging is important because much of the February decline was due to China’s weeklong Lunar New Year holidays. That said, exports to the US fell 9.9% Y-o-Y in January-February. China is meaningfully slowing, but not as much as the February data suggest.

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