Quirky Quarter

After expanding at an annualized pace of 4.1% in Q3 and 2.4% in Q4, expect Q1 GDP to come in below 1.5% and that’s an improvement based on stronger March data. Q1 will be weak because of dismal weather, very weak inventory accumulation after large increases in Q3 and Q4 and an unexpected decline in exports. Markets will shrug off this news. The rest of 2014 will be much better.

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