Posts Tagged ‘Weak Recovery’
Hooked on Stimulus
On 6/30/12 the weak economic recovery we’re experiencing will be three years old. Yet, absent microscopic interest rates and huge budget deficits there would be no recovery. Simply put, we’re hooked on cheap money and big spending and aren’t yet in a self sustaining recovery (SSR). Worse, the average post WWII recovery lasts 48 months.…
Read MoreWeak Growth, Low Rates
The output gap, the difference between what GDP is and what it could be, at 5.2% has never been this large this late in an economic recovery. Usually the gap has completely disappeared by the 2nd anniversary of the expansion which is why interest rates usually rise at that point. And, this is precisely why…
Read MoreConsumer Sediment
The good: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (a nat’l index) improved more than forecast in May. It’s at 72.4 up from 69.8 in April. The Bad: Economist had predicted 70. The Ugly: This reading is below the avg of 73.9 that we see in RECESSIONS and light years away from the 90 avg during…
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