Posts Tagged ‘Retail Sales’
Disappointing Data
Given a widening trade deficit, disappointing retail sales, weak inventory accumulation and now yesterday’s surprisingly bad housing starts at just 836,000 units, I’m reducing my Q2 GDP estimate to just 1%. Interestingly, single-family starts, 2-4 unit starts, and 5+ starts have all lost ground and are each at their lowest level since 8/12. Second half…
Read MoreDown Data
Retail sales fell a surprisingly large 0.4% in March, the biggest decline since 6/12 and the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 72.3 in April from 78.6 in March. Worse, February retail sales were cut by 0.1% and January sales by 0.3%. This shows that the payroll tax increase is starting…
Read MoreStrong Week
Retail sales jumped a strong 0.4%, even after subtracting high gas prices, higher building material prices, and autos and groceries. Industrial production was up and is nearing its pre-recession peak and the four-week moving average of initial weekly unemployment claims is at its lowest level in five years. Inflation continues to be benign. The only…
Read MoreWeek in Review
Small business became much more pessimistic in November with the major small business index tumbling 5.6 points, the steepest one-month decline in history! Consumers are slightly more optimistic with retail sales climbing 0.3% in November, offsetting the 0.3% decline in October. Elsewhere, inflation is in check at the headline, intermediate, and crude stages and industrial…
Read MoreBulls and Bears Battle
Week of 5/9/11 data recap: Retail sales were weak beneath the surface with 60% of the strength in April sales coming from higher prices for gasoline and food; looking closely at the Producer Price Index there is still minimal evidence of any pass-through inflation from the crude stage to the final product which means core…
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