Really it’s Recession

U.S. consumer confidence (Conference Board survey) jumped to 70.4 in Feb from 64.8 in Jan; the 5th increase in a row and best level since Feb ‘08. But, we are 20 months into a recovery, and 70.4 is the second lowest level of consumer confidence ever at this stage of the cycle. What is typical…

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New Zealand Recession?

New Zealand’s finance minister is suggesting his country could be on the precipice of a recession later this year & a flood-induced Q1 contraction in Australia seems assured. Inflationary pressures are building in emerging markets. Thus the need for interest rate hikes and liquidity drainage is a key reason why the equity markets in India,…

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