Having largely sidestepped the Great Recession, Canada is starting to look slightly shaky. House prices rose for the 19th straight month in October (been there) and household debt/GDP is 90% in Hockey Country while here it’s 77% after topping 90% in 2008. Worse, GDP in Q3 is almost at a crawl and their top-notch central banker, Mark Carney, switched teams and will now be Governor of the Bank of England.
Tag Archives: Q3 GDP
Bernanke Boost
While the economy is hardly roaring, Q3 GDP growth will be 2%, which is pretty good compared to month or two ago when 1.5% is what I would have predicted. Moreover, QE3 should boost Q4 GDP. That’s because the promise of massively stimulative monetary policy for the forseeable future, is suppressing interest rate increases in the face of good news (falling unemployment, and good retail sales), making investors happy.
High on Hopium
Q3 GDP came in at 2.5%; best performance since Q4 ’10. But, after looking at the economic entrails the number is weaker than it looks. Consumer spending on utilities and healthcare is what drove spending, not discretionary items. Worse, spending rose only because savings rates fell from 5% to 4%. Savings is falling because personal disposable income fell 1.7% in Q3; a huge decline. I bet the GDP number will be revised down.