Bad Banks

While the Fed has pumped trillions into private banks via QE, banks have been loath to lend. While partly due to the rebuilding of bank capital and changing federal regulations, it’s also due to low rates. Making fixed rate loans makes no sense because as rates rise, loan values fall. Variable rate loans are also…

Read More

Money in my Pocket

Total debt service payments as percentage of disposable income have fallen from a peak of 14.1% in 7/07 to just 10.6% today, a level last seen in 10/93; a decline of 25%. This is due to a combination of low interest rates, rising disposable income, and lots of mortgage defaults, which have reduced household debt…

Read More

Hooked on Stimulus

On 6/30/12 the weak economic recovery we’re experiencing will be three years old. Yet, absent microscopic interest rates and huge budget deficits there would be no recovery. Simply put, we’re hooked on cheap money and big spending and aren’t yet in a self sustaining recovery (SSR). Worse, the average post WWII recovery lasts 48 months.…

Read More

Poor Granny

To put the absolutely dismal interest rates we are getting on savings into perspective think of it this way. The highest yielding 1-yr CD pays 1%. At that rate, it takes 70 years to double your money. By contrast at 5% it takes only 14 years. And, at 10%, it takes just 7 glorious years.…

Read More

Can I Interest you?

While low interest rates are designed to encourage consumers and businesses to borrow and invest (with little success) the policy has hurt millions of older and retired persons. With money market funds paying 0.10%, 5-yr Treasuries paying 1.0% and 10-yr Treasuries paying 2.0%, interest income has drastically fallen. These folks now eat out less, buy…

Read More

Winners and Losers

Because Quantitative Easing Two (QE2), which is soon ending, forced interest rates down to record lows, stocks and commodities soared as investors’ searched for better returns than those available on Treasuries. US exporters also enjoyed the lift they received from the weak dollar. But, seniors were pounded as their savings have been earning virtually nothing.…

Read More

Weak Growth, Low Rates

The output gap, the difference between what GDP is and what it could be, at 5.2% has never been this large this late in an economic recovery. Usually the gap has completely disappeared by the 2nd anniversary of the expansion which is why interest rates usually rise at that point. And, this is precisely why…

Read More