Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’
Invisible Inflation
While the economy is improving, inflation is MIA. Wages adjusted for inflation were up just 0.3% in 2012 after falling 1% in 2011. Meanwhile, the CPI and core CPI (excluding food and energy) were up 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in 2012. Similarly, the producer price index (PPI) and core PPI were up just 1.3% and…
Read MoreChinese Currency Controls
By setting the value of the Renminbi unfairly low, Chinese exports are made artificially cheap, while (American) imports are artificially expensive. Normally, this would lead to a large increase in the money supply which would drive up domestic prices and negate the unfairly low exchange rate. However, by forcing banks to buy trillions of very…
Read MoreInflation to the Rescue
Rather than more quantitative easing, the Fed should stop targeting inflation and instead aim for a consistent level of nominal (unadjusted for inflation) GDP (NGDP) growth over the cycle. With this approach, the Fed would goose NGDP growth when times are bad (like now), by allowing more inflation, but restrain inflation when times are good.…
Read MoreApple Powers Portfolios
With today’s record closing price of $665.55, Apple, Inc. has a market value of $621 billion, far outpacing #2 Exxon Mobile at $405 billion. More interesting, Apple can now lay claim to being the most valuable company ever, edging Microsoft which, back in ’99, was worth $619 billion. But due to inflation, $619 billion in…
Read MoreAgricultural Economics
Despite crippling drought, US food prices will rise little as only 15% of each food dollar is attributable to farm products. Thus, even a 100% rise in corn prices would lift the CPI by 1.5%. And if this drought is as bad as 1988, which cost $80 billion, GDP will fall by just 0.50%. In…
Read MoreBe Like Us
The core euro problem is the dramatic differences in economic performance of the 17 member countries. Germany’s a star, the PIIGS aren’t. By sharing the euro devaluation is not possible. Moreover, the Germans won’t tolerate inflation, and labor mobility is low. The ideal solution; have richer countries perpetually support the poorer countries. It’s what we…
Read MoreQuantitative Uneasy
While Bernanke undoubtedly wanted to do more in the way of monetary stimulus than he did, yesterday’s Fed’s decision to explicitly commit to keeping rates low through late ’14, was the best he could do in place of another round of quantitative easing. Recall that bond purchases (QE1 and QE2) have become increasingly unpopular with…
Read MoreCan I Interest you?
While low interest rates are designed to encourage consumers and businesses to borrow and invest (with little success) the policy has hurt millions of older and retired persons. With money market funds paying 0.10%, 5-yr Treasuries paying 1.0% and 10-yr Treasuries paying 2.0%, interest income has drastically fallen. These folks now eat out less, buy…
Read MoreBulls and Bears Battle
Week of 5/9/11 data recap: Retail sales were weak beneath the surface with 60% of the strength in April sales coming from higher prices for gasoline and food; looking closely at the Producer Price Index there is still minimal evidence of any pass-through inflation from the crude stage to the final product which means core…
Read MoreGood Vs. Bad Inflation
The Fed via QE2 tried to generate inflation but got the wrong kind. Instead of wage inflation or real estate inflation (including house price increases) which causes people to ratchet up their spending because they feel richer, what we have are soaring prices for items that are hard to substitute away from such as energy…
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