Good Growth!

The combination of November exports reaching an all-time high of $194.9 billion, the trade deficit narrowing to just $34.25 billion, its lowest level since 10/09, November’s factory orders rising 1.8% and October’s factory orders upward revision of 0.4%, and strong consumer spending is making me raise my Q4 GDP forecast to 3.1%. In Q3, GDP…

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GDP = C+I+G+(X-M)

Q1 ’12 GDP was composed of personal consumption expenditures (C) totaling $11.0 trillion, private investment (I) of $2.0 trillion, government spending (G) of $3.0 trillion and net exports (E) of -$0.6 trillion. In Q2, G will be slightly lower, with E and I largely unchanged. So, overall GDP growth will be dependent on C. But…

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Trade Deficit Dynamics

The March trade deficit fell by 2.6% but, hold the applause. Imports fell 1.7% due to a fall in demand for crude oil. Exports fell 1.4% as US auto, industrial machinery & food products fell. As if the decline in exports was not bad enough, for the first few months of ’11 the deficit is…

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