Posts Tagged ‘Great public speaking economist’
Potential Problem
Despite being about to begin the seventh year of an economic recovery, GDP growth has averaged a lackluster 2.2% the entire time, profoundly lower than in previous recoveries. The reason, a combination of slow labor force growth, primarily due to an aging population, and virtually no labor productivity growth due to firms not investing in…
Read MoreBusy Bodies
In 3/07, the unemployment rate hit a cyclical low of 4.7%. Today it’s 5.4% and a rate of 4.7% will soon be reached. The question is when. Assuming employment growth of 211,000/month, the 3-year average monthly rate, the unemployment rate will hit 4.7% in 10.5 short months. Even with employment growth of 170,000/month, just 70%…
Read MoreInflationary Income
The Friday File: The Washington Nationals recently signed hurler Max Sherzer to a mind-blowing seven-year $210 million contract, payable over 14 years. Sherzer will receive $15 million/year. Beyond Sherzer’s performance, this is a bet on expected long-term inflation. If inflation averages 2% over the life of the contract, it’s worth $196.6 million. At 4% it’s…
Read MoreCracking Crime
A dollar of government spending can create more than a dollar of tax revenue! About $60 billion/year of Medicare spending goes for “improper payments.” With a return of over $10 for each dollar spent, Congress should increase the Medicare fraud-busting budget. Similarly, with a return of about $5 for each dollar spent, Congress should increase…
Read MorePoor Profits
While Q1 corporate profit growth will likely be flat due to bad weather, a strong dollar and weak exports, global growth and oil prices, corporate profits have been lackluster for some time. Following a Great Recession annualized low of $674.1 billion in Q4/08, profits rapidly rose to an annualized $1.8 trillion in Q3/13, which pushed…
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