Down Data

Retail sales fell a surprisingly large 0.4% in March, the biggest decline since 6/12 and the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to 72.3 in April from 78.6 in March. Worse, February retail sales were cut by 0.1% and January sales by 0.3%. This shows that the payroll tax increase is starting…

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Tax Trivia

In 1934, individual income taxes were 14% of tax receipts, today they’re 47%. Similarly, social insurance and retirement receipts were just 1% but are 35% today. By contrast, corporate income taxes were just 12% in 1934, reached a high of 40% in 1943 and are now 10%, while excise taxes have fallen from 46% to…

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Masterful Musicians

The Friday File: On 12/5/12, jazz great Dave Brubeck died at age 91 and on 2/27/13 Harvey Lavan Cliburn, Jr. known best as Van Cliburn passed at age 78. Brubeck’s 1959 album “Time Out” was the first jazz album to sell over a million copies, while Cliburn’s recording of Tchaikovsky’s Piano Concerto #1 in 1958,…

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No Shoot

Rather than requiring gun-training, fingerprinting, outlawing assault weapons or “large” ammunition magazines or limiting the number of guns you can buy/day, instead require gun buyers to post a $10,000 bond for each gun purchased, and if the gun is involved in a crime, the bond is forfeited. This gives gun buyers strong incentives not to…

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Driving Sales

Last week automakers reported sales of 15.3 million, up from a low of 9.0 million in February 2009. The rise is due in part to ultra-low interest rates, but also to both a rapidly aging fleet and longer loan terms. The average age of a car is now 11.2 years, up from 8.4 in 1995,…

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Souring Cyprus

The recent $13 billion bailout (60% of GDP) made by the IMF, ECB, and European Commission to Cyprus does not solve problems, it just delays them. With a post bailout debt-to-GDP burden of 140%, an economy that will shrink 20% over the next two years, the gutting of its huge financial sector, and a promise…

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Less Work

US employment peaked in 1/08 at 138.1 million. Employment then fell to a low of 129.3 million in 2/10, a loss of 8.8 million jobs. Today 46 months after the end of the recession, employment is 135.2 million, 2.9 million below the high. Assuming an optimistic 200,000 new jobs per month, a new employment high…

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Bad Booze

The Friday File: Due to skyrocketing demand and fixed supply of bourbon, rather than raising the price, the distiller of Maker’s Mark is reducing its alcoholic content by 7%! While most customers won’t notice, those that do will buy better bourbon like Knob Creek and Booker’s from the same distillery. Boosting the price of Maker’s…

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Building on Housing

As if more proof were needed that home building is rapidly improving, and that production builders are the biggest winners, Taylor Morrison plans an IPO to take advantage of the run-up in home builder stock prices. The planned IPO will value the firm at $2.6 billion. Not bad given that it was purchased in 2011…

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Week is Strong

Personal income rose 1.1%, consumer spending jumped a robust 0.7%, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose just 1.3% over the past year, consumer confidence increased, GDP for Q4 was revised up by 0.3% and house prices rose 8% year-on-year! But, unemployment claims were a bit higher, house sales fell a tad and savings remains painfully…

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